The quiet capital behind concrete: Why ATIDI wants to double its firepower

Last Updated 1 day ago by Kenya Engineer

The most important financial instrument on an infrastructure project may be the one the public never sees.

It is not a tower crane, turbine or kilometre of track. It is a guarantee that persuades a lender that, if a government agency fails to honour a contract or a utility misses a payment, the entire investment will not be lost.

That is the market occupied by African Trade and Investment Development Insurance, better known as ATIDI. The Nairobi-based multilateral insurer now plans to double its capital to approximately $2 billion over about two years, according to chief executive Manuel Moses.

The plan is subject to ATIDI securing additional shareholders and contributions. Moses told Reuters that discussions were under way with France, other G7 countries and roughly 30 African countries that are not currently members. The African Development Bank has already increased its interest from about three per cent to 14 per cent through a $125 million injection, while Germany’s KfW joined the shareholder group earlier in 2026. Reuters reported the capital plan on 7 August 2026.

Doubling capital should not be confused with ATIDI receiving $2 billion to spend directly on construction. Its role is to use its balance sheet to underwrite political, sovereign and commercial risks. The stronger the balance sheet, the greater the volume of guarantees it may be able to issue without weakening its credit standing.

Moses believes the proposed capital base could eventually support as much as $20 billion in guarantees annually. That is an ambition rather than committed project financing, but it points to the leverage that well-structured risk insurance can provide.

Turning uncertainty into a bankable risk

Infrastructure financing is built around predictable cash flow. A solar plant may be technically sound, for example, but lenders will still ask whether the electricity buyer can pay for the power throughout a 20-year agreement. A railway concession may have viable traffic projections, yet remain exposed to government action, currency restrictions or breach of contract.

ATIDI’s products include political-risk insurance, credit-risk cover, surety bonds and specialised energy guarantees. The aim is not to remove every risk. It is to allocate specified risks to an institution with the capital and expertise to carry them.

This can reduce financing costs and extend loan tenors. More importantly, it can rescue projects that would otherwise remain indefinitely “under development”.

ATIDI says its activities have helped mobilise more than $93 billion in investment since it was established 25 years ago. In Kenya alone, it estimates that its instruments have supported more than $7 billion across energy, transport, manufacturing, agriculture and trade.

Its reported exposure increased from $8.9 billion in 2024 to $9.2 billion in 2025. Total equity reached $883 million, while profit rose by 20 per cent to $71.4 million. These are ATIDI’s published figures and should be understood as institutional reporting rather than independently calculated estimates. ATIDI published the results following its Nairobi annual meeting in July 2026.

What the expansion could mean for Kenya

Kenya’s next generation of infrastructure will require financing models that go beyond direct government borrowing. Transmission lines, water-treatment facilities, industrial parks, data infrastructure and renewable projects all compete for limited public capital.

Guarantees can help bring pension funds, commercial banks and international investors into such projects without requiring the government to finance every asset from its own balance sheet.

But a larger guarantee institution is not a substitute for sound project preparation. A guarantee cannot repair a weak feasibility study, unrealistic demand forecast, defective procurement process or poorly drafted power-purchase agreement.

ATIDI must also maintain disciplined underwriting as it grows. Rapid expansion without careful assessment would concentrate risk on its balance sheet and ultimately weaken the confidence that its guarantees are meant to create.

Its preferred-creditor status is particularly important. Member states are expected to prioritise obligations owed to the institution even during financial distress. If that convention is weakened, so is the value of the cover ATIDI provides.

The proposed expansion therefore rests on two kinds of capital. The first is financial. The second is institutional trust. Africa’s infrastructure pipeline needs both.